Diplomat Starmer cannot neglect crises on the home front

The government must learn to walk and chew gum at the same time

Foreign policy played a typically minor role in last year’s general election. This is for a few reasons. First, the UK is a middling power with an army scarcely capable of defending its homeland, let alone fighting a major war abroad.

Second, Britain faces substantial domestic challenges, from near-record NHS waiting lists to overcrowded prisons. This on top of an economy that has failed to deliver meaningful increases in living standards for nearly two decades.

Third, Labour and the Conservatives signed a gentleman’s agreement not to discuss what was once the most pressing foreign policy issue the country faced – Brexit. For Rishi Sunak, the difficulty was that Britain’s departure from the European Union has been an economic and diplomatic disaster. Keir Starmer chose not to press this point, so as not to alienate voters in Leave-facing constituencies.

Finally, both men are instinctively interested in other things. Sunak gets excited about artificial intelligence, while his indifference to foreign affairs led to the public relations disaster that was his leaving the D-Day commemorations early. As for Starmer, he’s a barrister and former Director of Public Prosecutions, whose previous forays abroad were largely restricted to the world of law, such as his work on death-row cases.

This lack of focus on foreign policy is not uncoincidentally mirrored by the British public. An Ipsos survey from last May found that the NHS, the economy/inflation and immigration were the top issues cited as the most important facing the country. Foreign policy did not even feature in the top ten. But the second Trump administration’s decision to align itself against Europe and with Russia has put paid to that.

The prime minister’s energetic diplomacy over the past few days has provided something of a shot in the arm for a new government that had gotten off to a shaky start. Polling from More In Common finds that Starmer’s personal ratings are up, while a majority believe the handling of Ukraine reflects well on the government. A similar phenomenon can also be seen in Canada, where the governing Liberal Party has enjoyed an astonishing rise in popularity thanks to tensions stoked by Trump.

Still, domestic politics taking a backseat is not the same thing as them going away. Labour was elected on a mandate (such as it was) to plough money into under-funded public services without raising taxes on ‘working people’. That means no increase to income tax, VAT or national insurance. It has already broken the spirit of that promise with the 1.2 percentage point rise in employer’s NI, and it will surely come back for more.

The challenges on the domestic front are vast. Labour inherited an NHS with woeful productivity rates and an unfunded Long Term Workforce Plan. Local government finances remain untenable, secondary schools face a teacher recruitment crisis while criminal courts are failing to keep pace with demand and the prison system is completely overstretched.

The Budget sought to address some of these issues with hard cash. The chancellor raised day-to-day spending for 2024/25 by £23bn and £39bn in 2025/26. These are large injections. Indeed, as the Institute for Government notes, this average annual increase is more than every spending review since 1998, except for 2002. But the spending is heavily front-loaded. Put another way, current plans beyond 2025/26 imply cuts to unprotected departments, such as local government and justice. All this before any additional money for defence beyond that already announced.

Starmer is no doubt right to dedicate so much time to world affairs. As Cold War 2 between the United States and China gets underway, it would be a shame for the West to retroactively lose the original in 2025. But foreign policy is always time-consuming for the principal, a particular danger for this Downing Street, which sometimes stands accused of lacking political direction from the top.

This government is going to have to learn to walk and chew gum at the same time. The next election will not take place until 2029. That is, after Trump’s departure from office. But unless Starmer and Reeves can deliver on their domestic agenda, they may not outlive the US administration by many months.

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