Fear (and tactical voting) in Caerphilly
By-election shows voters don’t need electoral reform to get the outcome they want
Conservative MPs like to consider themselves the most sophisticated electorate in the world. Yes — the same people who accidentally kept James Cleverly out of the top two while trying to rig the last Tory leadership contest in his favour. In truth, the ‘most sophisticated’ label belongs to ordinary voters.
There are plenty of potential narratives to take away from last night’s Caerphilly by-election, which journalists and commentators are legally obliged by the Electoral Commission to describe using only natural disaster metaphors such as “political earthquake”, “seismic event”, “landslide” or “tsunami”.
That it is a humiliation for Labour and a blow to Keir Starmer’s authority, as the party that has dominated Welsh politics for more than a century secured just 11% of the vote and faces a total wipeout at next May’s Senedd elections. That it is an even bigger disaster for the Tories and Kemi Badenoch, as the official opposition in Westminster lost its deposit. Or that Plaid Cymru is set to emulate the SNP’s near monopoly on power in Scotland.
But what caught my eye was the sheer level of tactical voting. Luke Tryl, Director at More in Common, stayed up until the wee hours and summed it up thus: “Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.”
Chaos with Ed Miliband
If you want to know what’s going on in Welsh politics, read Will Hayward. My experience of Wales is almost entirely comprised of FA Cup finals of the early 2000s (beating Man Utd on penalties was joyous, losing to two injury time Michael Owen goals made for a less amusing drive home). But last night’s results do tell us something important about the wider British electorate.
YouGov’s polling has been remarkably static, with its latest survey showing Reform UK ahead, followed by Labour and the Conservatives. The only change of any significance is a bump for the Greens, who are now level pegging with the Lib Dems. The conventional wisdom is that, were these figures to be replicated at a general election (a fairly big ‘if’ four years out), the result would be total chaos. First-past-the-post is simply not designed for such diversity of opinion.
Having once dated a Lib Dem, I have had enough conversations about electoral reform to last a lifetime. And I don’t intend to open up old scars. Clearly, all other things being equal, one would rather be leading in national polls than trailing. Moreover, national swings are real — so an uptick in support should help a party across the country. But UK elections are not a single event — they are 650 individual contests.