Q: What's worse than having no money?

A: Having no money *and* no majority

(Andrew Parsons / No 10 Downing Street)

Conventional wisdom dictates that Theresa May made a historic misjudgement in calling the 2017 general election. Clearly, the result itself — exchanging a small majority for a minority — was a political disaster for the Conservatives and a personal humiliation for the prime minister.

But May had good reason to go to the polls when she did. First, as later events would demonstrate, she was correct in identifying the need for as large a majority as possible in order to get her Brexit legislation through parliament. And second, more immediately, she was badly hamstrung by her predecessor’s promises on taxation.

In the March 2017 Budget, Philip Hammond announced plans to raise national insurance rates for the self-employed. Within a week, he had been forced into a U-turn. The reason was simple: the 2015 Conservative manifesto had pledged not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance. Sound familiar?

With a majority of just 12, May had no choice but to ditch the policy. Saddled with a manifesto not of her own making, the prime minister came to the conclusion that she required a mandate of her own. The mistake, therefore, was not calling the election, but in running one of the worst campaigns in recorded history.

Save your tears for another day

With a budget deficit of 5.1% and public sector net debt equivalent to 95.3% of GDP at the end of September, the UK economy is scarcely the envy of the world. Worse still, the indicators appear to be headed in the wrong direction. The government borrowed £100bn in the first half of 2025-26, £12bn more than in the same period the year before and £7bn more than the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast in March.

Throw in anaemic growth, stubborn inflation, global headwinds plus cuts to productivity growth and little wonder the government faces raising up to £40bn in taxes at the upcoming Budget. It is enough to make one feel sorry for Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer. But you shouldn’t.