The myth of the “forged in fire” politician

Does childhood trauma really make you more likely to be prime minister?

What makes a successful politician, and might childhood trauma be the key? In a 1970 book, The Fiery Chariot, Lucille Iremonger observed that of the 24 prime ministers to have held office from 1809 to 1940, 62% had lost one or both parents by the age of 15.

Of course, mortality rates were significantly higher in the past, but this still compares to a national rate of 10-15% in the same period. More recently, the trend appears to have continued. John Major’s father died when he was 18, Tony Blair lost his mother while at university, and Theresa May lost both her parents in her mid-twenties.

Other early traumas are available too. Boris Johnson’s mother suffered a “mental breakdown” when he was 10, which forced her to leave the family home and be admitted to a psychiatric hospital, where she stayed for nine months. Keir Starmer’s mother developed Still’s disease and as a young teenager, he was handed the appalling task of informing his siblings that she was seriously ill and might die.

Nor is this restricted to British political leaders. Fully 12 US presidents — more than a quarter — lost a father while they were young, the most recent being Barack Obama. There is evidence too that the trend persists for scientists, poets and, of course, celebrities. The actor Brian Cox lost his father aged eight, John Lennon his mother aged 17. Oprah Winfrey has spoken of being molested at the age of 9 and becoming pregnant at 14 with a son, who died in infancy.

Cue all manner of theories as to why this might be. Is it, as Iremonger wrote, the “deprivation of love” which drives forward those who have suffered great loss at a young age? The businessman Lord Rose, whose mother killed herself when he was 24, told The Times in 2020 that he compares childhood trauma to a vaccination that gives you the “antibodies” that can fight off other disasters in your life.

With two parents very much alive and, more to the point, subscribers to this newsletter, who am I to disagree? Still, I’m going to a little bit and for a couple of reasons.