The rule of law is a cost of living issue

Trump's tariffs are bad for the economy. So too is sending legal residents to a foreign gulag (not to mention, you know, depraved)

(Thiago Dezan / Farpa)

“X is a losing issue”. Feel free to insert the thing you do not care about — politicians do it all the time. X might be immigration, Brexit, or climate change. The idea is that parties should focus only on what in America is often called pocketbook issues and in Britain, the cost of living. Namely, prices, job security and the economy. It can be summed up in that overused, misunderstood and usually misquoted maxim, “It’s The Economy, Stupid.”¹

The Democratic Party is encountering such a quandary. It faces a president – in lockstep with the only other party in a strict two-party system – who is trampling on due process and renouncing the very notion of the rule of law. And it does not know what to do.

You are no doubt aware of the more egregious cases. Take that of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a 29-year-old from El Salvador, who was wrongly deported from the US last month due to an “administrative error”. In a 9-0 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the US government should help “facilitate” his return.

Yet the Trump administration has thus far refused, arguing without evidence that Abrego Garcia is a member of MS-13, a Salvadorian gang. In ignoring the court, the administration has both condemned a man to a foreign gulag and sparked a constitutional crisis. The question now for Democrats is simple: should they care?

The case against doing so is this: most people living in America are citizens who do not consider themselves, even now, the type to be deported to a Salvadorian jail. Instead, they care about their jobs, pension and the price of eggs. Democrats, facing a rebuke at the last election, must focus on what really matters. Particularly when Trump’s tariffs are poised to plunge the US economy into a recession of choice.

Ordinarily, I would have some sympathy for this position. Taking the popular side of issues is normie politics. Allowing yourself to become associated with the excesses of any movement usually ends badly. For example, it is the difference between being opposed to police violence and in favour of "defunding the police”. Unsurprisingly, the latter makes you appear out of touch to people who might otherwise be disposed to your broader aims.

For that reason, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been all in on the cost of living. Jeffries has even launched “cost of living week action”, telling ABC’s This Week:

“We have to continue to talk to the American people about our plans. We recognise that housing costs are too high, grocery costs are too high, utility costs are too high, child care costs are too, high insurance costs are too high. America is too expensive.”

The problem with this is two-fold. First, the rule of law is broadly popular, and the Trump administration’s trampling over it is not. Indeed, a recent YouGov survey found that nearly two-thirds of US adults support the Supreme Court’s order that the government must facilitate the return of Abrego Garcia. But there is something even more fundamental than that.

The rule of law is a cost of living issue. So too is the presumption of innocence and an open, independent and impartial judiciary. That we are all bound by and entitled to the benefit of said laws is another. That is because lawlessness – whether perpetrated by an individual or backed by the state – is bad for the economy.

If you are an entrepreneur with an idea or investor with a wad of cash, why would you risk your assets in a nation where the government can arbitrarily change the rules or simply engage in expropriation? If you are an employee, why bother paying your taxes if public officials are corrupt? If you are a student, why show up for class when you can be disappeared from the streets? If you are a foreign tourist, why book a holiday if you can be detained by the border force without cause? Indeed, why should anyone pay for anything or honour any contract when you can just steal instead?

America became the richest, most powerful nation in recorded history thanks to its abundance of land, access to natural resources, the absence of powerful foes, deep wells of capital and so on. But that was all underpinned by an unshakeable belief in its governance and legal system. That it was a nation of laws, and not of men.

The gravest threat to the American economy will come not from tariffs, but from the moment when no one trusts the system — or each other — anymore.

1. James Carville, who ran Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, actually put three reminders on the wall of the campaign headquarters. In addition to “The economy, stupid,” it read “Change vs. more of the same.” And, “Don’t forget healthcare.”