Make Brexit Invisible
Vote Labour, skip the queue
As Reform UK gets to grips with its newfound strongholds across local government, I have only one piece of advice: do not mess with the bin collections. Most residents have little to do with their local authority. They do not visit the library, use social services or seek planning permission for a basement extension. Instead, they pay their council tax by direct debit and expect the bins to be dealt with in a timely and efficient manner.
Any party that falls foul of this compact tends to suffer the electoral consequences. Indeed, opposition to the Green Party’s proposals to make Bristol the first major city in England to collect black bag waste every four weeks may have cost it the West of England mayoralty earlier this month.
It is the same concept that ought to shape Labour’s negotiations with the EU. Most Britons do not trade in phytosanitary products, work for UK defence contractors, or play bass in bands touring second-tier European cities. Instead, they want to go on holiday, land in Malaga, Nice or Crete, and not feel like second-class citizens as they queue at passport control while the locals breeze through.
Keir Starmer and his Europe henchman, Nick Thomas-Symonds, ought to have clear political and economic objectives for any ‘reset’ with the EU. These will involve gaining access to the Commission’s €150bn Security Action for Europe, to which the UK is currently ineligible, greater law enforcement cooperation and dropping food checks at the border. In return, the government is likely to give way on fisheries, domestic university fees for EU citizens and a greater role for the European Court of Justice.
Any deal will, of course, leave the government open to attack. Labour will be hammered by the Conservatives and Reform UK for surrendering to Brussels. The Liberal Democrats and Greens will complain the rapprochement does not go far enough. The SNP and Plaid Cymru will grumble that Scotland and Wales (where big elections take place next year) have once again been short-changed. Meanwhile, the Northern Irish parties will no doubt find a way to ask Westminster for more money. But nothing in this life is free.
“Vote Labour, win a microwave”
David Axelrod, the former advisor to Barack Obama, famously summed up Ed Miliband’s 2015 general election campaign as “vote Labour, win a microwave”. That is, it focused too much on narrow, voter-friendly policies such as the energy price freeze or reversing the so-called bedroom tax.
But the retail offer must not be entirely ignored either. If the government can ensure that British tourists may use e-gates across Europe, that is a tangible benefit. Moreover, if it could convince telecoms companies to remove EU roaming charges, that might be worth an equivalent 5p cut to the basic rate of income tax.
Of course, such measures cannot undo the economic damage of Brexit. The Office for Budget Responsibility still forecasts that the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement will lead to a 4% reduction in the potential productivity of the UK economy. This reduced trade intensity is a major drag on tax receipts, government spending and wider living standards. Voters may not always blame Brexit for that (and indeed, Brexit is not always the culprit), but they are clearly not happy about it.
Friction at the border will not be totally erased. UK citizens will still have to register for the new European visa waiver when it becomes operational, which will last them three years and set them back £6. Nor, of course, will Britons be able to work visa-free in the EU or stay in their holiday homes year round1. But, again, most people will not notice.
Still, I think back to something the FT’s Janan Ganesh wrote about Brexit, all the way back in 2017:
It ends around 2035 as the average Briton, perhaps standing in the infinite non-European queue of a Mediterranean airport, looks around and notices something about the French and German travellers. They are not just collecting their bags already, they are noticeably better off.
Labour may be able to ease the most visible of Brexit frictions, but unless voters begin to notice their lives getting tangibly better — at the border and beyond — the political dividends may be limited.
British citizens cannot stay for more than 90 days within any 180 day period across all EU countries