Susan Hall couldn't, could she?

The defeated candidate for mayor is back to lead the London Tories, in the latest sign the party has lost interest in winning back the capital

Susan Hall (Creative Commons)

It acquired a momentum of its own. Over the course of Friday 3 May 2024, a rumour began to circulate across politico social media that Susan Hall, the Conservative candidate for London mayor, might win. This was odd for a number of reasons.

First, not a single vote had been tallied. The election was held on the day before, but counting would not take place until the Saturday. Second, there was no exit poll which might have given credence to such an outcome. Third, the polls in the run up to election day suggested a comfortable victory for Sadiq Khan. And fourth, Hall did not run an especially strong campaign.

Take, for example, the time she claimed a pickpocket had stolen her wallet, only for it to be later returned to her, complete with cash and cards. Or when the Tories were forced to delete an attack ad because the video, which included black and white footage of a stampede in a train station, was in fact taken from New York's Penn Station, following reports of gunfire. Or her pro-Trump tweets. Or that time she called reality TV star Gemma Collins a “stupid fat blonde woman”.

In the end, when actual votes were counted, Khan won comfortably, with 43.8% of the vote compared with Hall’s 32.7%. I did not think Hall would win. London is a heavily Labour city, 2024 was a strongly anti-Tory year, it all just seemed far-fetched. Still, I admit to thinking the result would be closer and wrote about why at the time, in all my wrongness¹. I had my reasons.

First, that headline was a trifle click-baity. Second, Khan was not an especially popular incumbent, with a majority of Londoners saying he had done a bad job on knife crime, homelessness and improving the availability of housing. Third, the mayor had underperformed in his previous election against another unfavoured Tory candidate, Shaun Bailey². Fourth, polls had historically overestimated Labour’s performance in the capital. And fifth, the change in the electoral system from the supplementary vote to first-past-the-post meant that the winning candidate could conceivably be elected on 30%-40% of the vote. Am I coming across as a tad defensive here?

But there was one final rationale. London is not some deep red Labour holdout that the Tories never have a chance of winning. Readers may have memory-holed the information, but voters in the capital twice elected Boris Johnson to lead them. At the time, Johnson was seen as a happy-go-lucky, socially liberal cheerleader for London. His second victory in 2012 was all the more impressive for coming during the high watermark of Ed Miliband’s Labour opposition.

It was remarkable, if slightly accidental, that the Tories selected Hall as their candidate in 2024 and even more so that they have returned her to lead the party in the Greater London Authority. It all rather adds to the impression that the Conservatives have somewhat given up on the capital, which is a shame. With 13% of the population, around a quarter of the economic output and 75 parliamentary constituencies (an increase of two from the boundary review), the country’s most successful political party and its most dynamic city really ought not be strangers.

This is not simply about candidate quality, though that matters of course. What is the Tory offer to Londoners, especially in an age where fewer and fewer young people can get on the housing ladder, start a family and naturally begin leaning Conservative? What is the plan to win back seats such as Battersea, Putney and Chipping Barnet? And how can this be managed as the party nationally seeks to shore up its right flank, currently under attack from Reform UK?

Being in opposition is about pointing at problems, and the capital has its fair share. Earlier this month, the Metropolitan Police, hardly a highly regarded institution, announced it would shed 1,700 officers and staff as it faces a £260m black hole. This includes the disbanding of Royal Parks police and officers in schools.

But political parties must avoid the impression they actively dislike the places they wish to lead. The Tories certainly risk that in the capital, but it is so much worse. In reappointing Hall, they appear not to understand why London has passed them by, or show any interest in finding out.

1. In fact, if you Google ‘Susan Hall might win”, my article is the top search result.

2. Khan led 40% to Bailey’s 35.% in the first round of voting in 2021